Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 76254.381689 80544.896824 84838.284450 89453.848545 94272.323886 99151.136944 104461.362552
2026-01-11 69323.774987 75865.572834 82597.188147 90032.425092 98005.070816 106287.825237 115533.724493
2026-01-18 64083.752436 72139.278980 80613.975715 90175.033227 100642.003426 111732.659864 124352.827876
2026-01-25 60081.585146 69263.152414 79103.433105 90402.568247 102985.617952 116535.123939 132195.111500
2026-02-01 56604.951053 66644.279920 77581.274641 90334.840611 104749.987763 120489.539928 138924.847237
2026-02-08 54150.378854 64964.838332 76918.926336 91049.746561 107231.113597 125114.745927 146305.103706
2026-02-15 51570.113473 62970.279100 75744.303612 91036.709032 108760.293180 128567.821375 152287.297335
2026-02-22 50033.232153 62075.564349 75735.466356 92274.932916 111650.617648 133519.515828 159953.118081
2026-03-01 48424.761757 60999.718594 75430.769284 93092.282940 113992.302140 137800.947657 166830.835224
2026-03-08 46471.843217 59417.890316 74444.749267 93028.199922 115235.111294 140759.133556 172141.828515
2026-03-15 44874.650345 58189.663035 73811.500331 93320.808264 116847.990012 144114.929169 177901.561359
2026-03-22 44000.744145 57795.807964 74139.947503 94733.493289 119774.095282 149012.826894 185495.755397
2026-03-29 42941.893450 57144.110395 74137.457400 95740.981052 122227.561395 153386.113657 192534.381082
2026-04-05 41763.677020 56297.744494 73858.544115 96380.471306 124217.600544 157204.315541 198929.694702
2026-04-12 40425.684014 55198.445589 73221.310235 96537.573361 125587.414857 160258.260008 204404.114277
2026-04-19 39210.935410 54210.405048 72681.977871 96779.563832 127033.646051 163389.553376 209972.991781
2026-04-26 37922.227682 53081.245122 71923.346874 96708.287325 128060.655953 165989.915352 214889.099064
2026-05-03 37081.219633 52503.114919 71837.327640 97464.141273 130106.695934 169840.211882 221354.117893
2026-05-10 35945.856237 51499.633560 71171.764781 97450.375691 131160.113330 172449.557929 226286.289216
2026-05-17 35441.426439 51313.259343 71545.447515 98759.257800 133886.689558 177149.640197 233842.247163
2026-05-24 34775.835539 50886.860244 71586.687050 99623.149949 136038.909519 181135.457320 240526.033391
2026-05-31 33757.363540 49951.795407 70932.076927 99555.420919 136976.411696 183583.500591 245281.966045
2026-06-07 32938.503402 49263.364554 70580.495957 99864.674370 138386.548513 186624.574068 250794.383516